Obama’s Dilemma: Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico Etc.

Talk about timing: Back in the end of March 2010, President Obama said that we should open up more drilling off the Atlantic coastline, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the north coast of Alaska… And then there were no less than three catastrophes:

• The West Virginia mine explosion which claimed 29 lives
• The Gulf oil explosion which killed 11 and continues to cause extraordinary environmental damage
• Two souls are lost after a Kentucky mine roof collapse

Juxtapose the above with the recent announcement that for the first time, the United States is giving the “green light” to a controversial offshore wind farm, and President Obama is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. To make matters worse, the very liberal POTUS has had the gumption to suggest that we move forward with nuclear power – a move that further flies in the face of  “Left Wing Agenda”.

Given all this, Barack Obama faces one terrible fact – our foreign sources of oil are terribly unstable and/or just downright hate us. Here are three of the five countries from which we import oil in order of amount:

1. Mexico (second only to Canada)
2. Venezuela (third overall)
3. Saudi Arabia (fifth overall)

Ouch. But hold on. There’s even more happy happy: Take a look at just the short-term future projections for energy cost… Double ouch.

Quite simply, President Barack Obama is cornered. Just a month ago, he proposed that we consider more drilling and then came the disaster in the Gulf and the mines. He’s been excoriated by the Kennedy liberals for having the audacity to move forward with the Nantucket Sound wind farm. And to add salt to the wounds, conventional energy probably ain’t gonna get cheap in the near future.

When all is said and done, if there is one lonely advantage to having one’s soul wrestled naked to the unforgiving mirror of binding fact, it is this – we get to see the content of intention, character, and wisdom. And that is President Obama’s dilemma…

Alan Speakman

What is Russia Doing?

UPDATE: Charles Krauthammer agrees…

There is justifiable concern regarding Russia and Georgia… But what is really going on here? 

Well, let’s start at the beginning… The old joke goes, “How can you tell a politician is lying? Check to see if his lips are moving…” In the case of Russian/Soviet politicians, a more appropriate answer to the joke might be, Check to see if his lips are moving and there are a ton of dead innocents. (From the gulags to East Berlin to Chernobyl, to the Kursk to… Just take your pick.) But what’s going on here? 

First a bit of a backdrop… 

Focus on South Ossetia and Abkhazia – “regions” of Georgia… Russia and Georgia have been fussing over these areas since 1991 (the breakup of the USSR). Basically, sizeable populations in both regions consider themselves Russian, Georgian, Ossetian, or Abkhaz. As with all disagreements of this sort, “ethnic cleansing” and “peacekeepers” were thrown into the mix. In 1992, Georgia attempted to solidify the territory within its border and moved towards the South Ossetian town of Tskhinvali. Russia took a rather dim view of this and warned Georgia to retreat, or risk the bombing of the Georgian city of Tbilisi (the capitol of Georgia and facilitator to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline). Then-Georgian President, Eduard Shevardnaze (remember him?) made the smart move and withdrew. Since then, it’s been a bit of a pissing contest between Russia, Georgia, and the two quasi-independent republics.

Now let’s fast-forward to August 7, 2008 (day prior to the start of the Olympics, by the way)… The Georgians again attacked, and this time took control of Tskhinvali. But why did they do this? Odds are they were simply trying (again) to solidify their country, and in doing so perhaps be finally drawn to the warm bosom of NATO. It wasn’t a bright move, but understandable nonetheless. (See http://www.hetq.am/eng/politics/8284/ and various wikipedia entries for more info on this.) 

All righty then, backdrop out of the way… What in the name of Yakov Smirnoff is Russia doing?

• Well, these two regions (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) do have sizable populations that still consider themselves Russian. The Russians claim to be looking out for these people, and perhaps they actually are. But there’s far more involved here…
• This is Russia’s “letter to the world” that seldom wrote to her lately. From 2006 to 2007, Russia’s GDP rose a remarkable 8.1% (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia#Economy). Think of it as a sort of, “I’m back…”
• Depending upon whom you listen to, Russia provides between 25% – 40% of Europe’s natural gas and oil. In a world of diminishing fossil fuel supplies, from an economic standpoint Russia is starting to carry a very big stick. Putin is simply reminding folks of that fact.
• Russia wants to send a message to its old CIS buddies… (CIS is the “Commonwealth of Independent States”. Depending on how you define them, these are the 10 former Soviet Republics: Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine). And that message is quite clear – nothing is final.
• How can Putin resist sticking his thumb in Dubya’s eye just one more time? There they are in Beijing, trapped in hopelessly awkward photo ops. Putin, the ex-KGB master, and Bush the recovering alcoholic who truly wants to believe in the God-given potential for decency in the souls of all men. (Heck, Bush 43 said that he could even see it in Vladimir… Ouch.)
• There is a saying in Russia, “Nothing is worth the blood of a child…” Keep in mind all of Ossetia is touchy stuff after the murder of 350 people, (half of them children) in Beslan, N. Ossetia back in 2004 by Muslim Chechens… But regardless of who slaughtered those people, Russia and Putin are still very volatile concerning an upset in any of Ossetia, North or South.
• And finally, there is oil, (again). Four major pipelines run through South Ossetia. If Putin were to stop that oil flow for good, that would mean a decrease in the world supply by roughly 1 million barrels/day. That’s not a huge dent in our global consumption of roughly 85 millions of barrels/day. However, Right now, all told, we’re at a capacity of 87 million barrels of oil/day… Things are getting tight, and Russia knows it.

 So are the Russian politicians lying? Of course they are, and innocents are being targeted. But the other factors cited above need to be taken into consideration… After kicking some serious butt in S. Ossetia, Russia may or may not stand down. But the message is very clear. Russia is back, and she’s the power player in her region. And there isn’t a damned thing that America or the EU can do about it.

If nothing else, this underscores the naiveté of American comfort-born politics in a very brutal world. Where have you gone Colin Powell? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you…

 Alan Speakman